{"id":224,"date":"2023-12-26T20:41:29","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T13:41:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/?p=224"},"modified":"2023-12-26T20:41:29","modified_gmt":"2023-12-26T13:41:29","slug":"ba-nhom-co-phieu-duoc-du-bao-bay-cao-trong-nam-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/2023\/12\/26\/ba-nhom-co-phieu-duoc-du-bao-bay-cao-trong-nam-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Ba nh\u00f3m c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o “bay cao” trong n\u0103m 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c 2024 c\u1ee7a FinPeace, l\u00e3i sau thu\u1ebf to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u00fd III \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i n\u1ec1n cao n\u0103m 2021 nh\u01b0ng t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p ch\u00ednh t\u1eeb nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c. N\u1ec1n th\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a 2023 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c ch\u00ednh cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf 2024.<\/p>\n

B\u1ee9c tranh KQKD to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103m 2024 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u1eeb n\u1ec1n th\u1ea5p n\u0103m 2023, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u1edf nh\u00f3m doanh nghi\u1ec7p ni\u00eam y\u1ebft tr\u1eeb Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 B\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n khi (1) M\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh trong n\u0103m 2023 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec th\u1ea5p trong n\u0103m 2024 s\u1ebd h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p (2) Ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i nh\u1edd ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf VAT (ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m 2% thu\u1ebf VAT \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft th\u00e1ng 6\/2024). (3) Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i trong n\u0103m 2024 khi nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 EU quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i. (4) \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 FDI ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao.<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, FinPeace d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o GDP n\u0103m 2024 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 5,8% v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng 10-15%.<\/p>\n

Ba nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh s\u00e1ng c\u1eeda trong n\u0103m 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, FinPeace cho r\u1eb1ng n\u0103m 2024, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1eadm khi \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. Do \u0111\u00f3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc \u1edf c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n ri\u00eang. \u0110\u1ed9i ng\u0169 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01b0a ra 3 nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n kh\u1ea3 quan trong n\u0103m 2024 g\u1ed3m th\u00e9p, \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed.<\/b><\/p>\n

Trong ng\u1eafn v\u00e0 trung h\u1ea1n, ng\u00e0nh th\u00e9p, <\/b>\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 \u1ea5m l\u00ean c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Ng\u00e0nh th\u00e9p c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan r\u1ea5t ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u1edbi ng\u00e0nh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n khi 65% nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 th\u00e9p n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng.<\/p>\n

\n
\"A\u0309nh<\/a><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

V\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, ng\u00e0nh th\u00e9p Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f2n 10 n\u0103m trong chu k\u1ef3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u1ed1t v\u1edbi hai l\u00fd do. M\u1ed9t l\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 v\u00e0ng v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP 6-7%\/n\u0103m, c\u1ea7u th\u00e9p h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i theo khi \u0111i song song v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf. Hai l\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e9p t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c sang c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, bao g\u1ed3m Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

Ng\u00e0nh \u0111i\u1ec7n<\/b> v\u1eabn trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh. Trong ng\u1eafn v\u00e0 trung h\u1ea1n, vi\u1ec7c kh\u1eafc ph\u1ee5c t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec7n trong n\u0103m 2024 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c nh\u00f3m x\u00e2y l\u1eafp \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2023, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ng\u00e0nh \u0111i\u1ec7n s\u1ebd “c\u00f4ng-th\u1ee7 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n”.<\/p>\n

\n
\"A\u0309nh<\/a><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, ng\u00e0nh \u0111i\u1ec7n s\u1ebd b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh, trung b\u00ecnh 8,5%\/n\u0103m trong v\u00f2ng 8 n\u0103m t\u1edbi. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao so v\u1edbi khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec7n b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Vi\u1ec7t c\u00f2n th\u1ea5p, c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i nh\u00f3m d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed<\/b>, FinPeace cho r\u1eb1ng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n ng\u00e0nh v\u1eabn xoay quanh vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 tri\u1ec3n khai d\u1ef1 \u00e1n L\u00f4 B \u2013 \u00d4 M\u00f4n. Nh\u00f3m doanh nghi\u1ec7p th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh 10 \u2013 15% trong 3 n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

\n
\"A\u0309nh<\/a><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

“Nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2030 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p 2 l\u1ea7n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. Theo quy ho\u1ea1ch \u0111i\u1ec7n VIII, \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2030, \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00ed s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ngu\u1ed3n \u0111i\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t ngu\u1ed3n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p 2 l\u1ea7n cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2022”, theo b\u00e1o c\u00e1o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a FinPeace.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, ng\u00e0nh kh\u00ed s\u1ebd b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh trong 10 n\u0103m. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2022-2035 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhi\u1ec7t \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00ed b\u00f9 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec7n thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t. \u0110\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng quy ho\u1ea1ch \u0111i\u1ec7n VIII c\u0169ng l\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00ed l\u00e0m tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, m\u1edf ra chu k\u1ef3 m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0y kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u00e1ng v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 2024. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 bi\u00ean l\u00e3i r\u00f2ng NIM \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u1eeb n\u1ec1n th\u1ea5p 2023. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u xu\u1ed1ng th\u1ea5p s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u t\u1eeb qu\u00fd IV\/2023 v\u00e0 n\u0103m 2024, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 khi\u1ebfn l\u00e3i c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0nh kh\u00f3 b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 trong n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 qua. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng to\u00e0n ng\u00e0nh s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, tuy nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a l\u1edbn gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c 2024 c\u1ee7a FinPeace, l\u00e3i sau thu\u1ebf to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u00fd III \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i n\u1ec1n cao n\u0103m 2021 nh\u01b0ng t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p ch\u00ednh t\u1eeb nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c. N\u1ec1n th\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a 2023 s\u1ebd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=224"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":226,"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224\/revisions\/226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/doanthanh.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}